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For a period of time, the price of alloy steel pipes has fallen sharply. Analyzing the main factors of price drops is not due to the so-called market oversupply, but the foresight of the world's mining giants hidden behind it: trying to control competitors through price wars, and maintain their monopoly status and pricing power. Under this situation, China should seize the opportunity, make good use of low-cost resources abroad, and construct short-term areas of the national economy; build a huge-scale resource reserve and build a "deterrent" in price negotiations; continue to "go global" and actively Carry out the merger and reorganization of mining resources; take these three aspects as China's iron ore resources strategic policy response.
Since the beginning of this year, iron ore prices at home and abroad have fallen sharply. According to customs statistics, in May 2014, the average price of imported iron ore nationwide was US$110.2 per ton, a decrease of 17% over the same period last year. Affected by this, domestic iron ore prices have also fallen sharply. Market monitoring data shows that domestic iron ore prices fell by more than 20% at the end of June compared with the beginning of this year.
Analyzing the main factors for the deep decline in iron ore prices, some opinions attribute it to weak demand, excessive release of alloy steel pipe production capacity, and excessive port inventory. The supply exceeds demand in the market, which is of course an important factor in the price drop, but it cannot fully explain why the price of iron ore has fallen so sharply. From the perspective of demand, global iron ore still maintains a relatively high growth rate. This is not only reflected in the recovery of steel production in developed countries, but also a significant increase in the self-consumption of Indian mines, but also the strong growth of iron ore imports from China, the world's steel producer. According to customs statistics, the national iron ore imports in 2013 were 819.41 million tons, an increase of 10.2% over the previous year; in the first five months of this year, iron ore imports jumped to 382.66 million tons, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. If no major accidents occur, it is estimated that iron ore imports in 2014 will reach 900 million tons, an increase of more than 10% over the previous year. Since China's iron ore imports account for a large proportion of the world's iron ore trade volume, as long as China's iron ore imports remain at a high level, the world's iron ore consumption situation will not be bad.
It can be seen that, at the expense of immediate gains, a price war to clean up competitors, and to deter other channels from entering the mining sector, capacity expansion investment, alloy steel pipe Gong and its global iron ore production monopoly position and international market pricing power are in line with the long-term interests of the world's mining giants. And the world's mining giants have almost all the favorable conditions for a price war. This is also an important reason why the world's mining giants are full of confidence and insist on fighting a price war. It is also the underlying reason why the iron ore prices in the international market continue to fall sharply, and the world's mining giants do not take the initiative to maintain it. Based on this forecast, the price of iron ore in the international market will not rebound much in the next period of time, and it is likely to continue to operate at a weak point until some high-cost ore fails to support the bankruptcy and some production capacity exits the market. The author believes that the steel market is difficult to pick up, the main factor is the weak downstream demand. Although a series of micro-stimulus policies have been introduced on the macro level recently, the investment and construction efforts in various regions are not small, but it will take time to reflect the demand. Therefore, it is difficult for the terminal demand to show high volume in the short term. May be temporarily Wangmei quenched his thirst.
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